Question
When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?
Total Forecasters13
Community Prediction
23 Mar 2025
(01 Jul 2024 - 11 Apr 2026)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 01 Jul 2024 | — |
| median | 23 Mar 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 11 Apr 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2040 | 0.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 25, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 27, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 25, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 27, 2022