Question

Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?

Resolved :Yes

79 comments79

Total Forecasters168

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

2.0

Community Peer Score

0.3

median 99.0%mean 97.1%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

55%

Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

Former Taiwan leader Tsai to visit Czech Republic, other European destinations, drawing China’s ire

Associated Press•Oct 8, 2024

Most Taiwanese believe China unlikely to invade in coming five years, poll shows

NBC•Oct 9, 2024

Taiwan condemns Chinese military drills around island as ‘unreasonable provocation’

CNN•Oct 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

55%