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Taiwan, and in particular its fraught relationship with China, have been the subject of many previous Metaculus questions.

In July 2022, the Financial Times reported that Nancy Pelosi would visit Taiwan in August. CNN reported that Biden administration were worried that China could declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan if she visited. If Pelosi does visit Taiwan, it will be the first visit by a Speaker of the House of Representatives in 25 years. Recently, many Chinese planes have flown over Taiwan's ADIZ, which China claims as its own. However, there has not been a serious crisis over Taiwan since 1996, following Taiwan's then-President Lee Teng Hui giving a speech at Cornell, his alma mater.