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28 comments
156 forecasters

Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?

0.5%chance
0.5%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
uganda
Opened:Oct 3, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2022
Geopolitics
Politics
🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard
Business Insider logo
North Korean soldiers are flying drones for Russia and directing strikes in Ukraine, Kyiv says
Business Insider•Oct 16, 2025
Daily Mail logo
Ukraine 'will use Tomahawks to destroy huge Russian drone factory where 20,000 North Koreans build weapons once Trump gives the green light'
Daily Mail•Oct 15, 2025
PBS NewsHour logo
North Korea displays new long-range missile at military parade celebrating Kim Jong Un
PBS NewsHour•Oct 12, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

19% chance
123

Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050?

United States
93%
China
75%
Any EU country
64%
2 others
22 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

0.1% chance
240
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