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2
comments
59
forecasters
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
65%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
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Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
SpaceX
NASA
CNSA
Others (2)
Resolution Criteria
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Background Info
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embed
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Aug 21, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2100
Economy & Business
Technology
Geopolitics
News Match
Jeff Bezos wants to send people to live in space — here’s what it would look like
New York Post
•
Nov 2, 2025
International Space Station marks 25-year milestone. What to know about iconic outpost
USA Today
•
Nov 2, 2025
NASA’s moon landing plan is in flux. Wild ideas are quietly taking shape
CNN
•
Nov 1, 2025
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about Metaculus NewsMatch
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