14 forecasters

Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?

8%chance

This question is closed for predictions.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 9, 2022

Closed:

Sep 19, 2022

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 11, 2022

The Taiwan Tinderbox

2022 Leaderboard

China Breaks Silence After Flexing Nuclear Triad for First Time

Newsweek•Sep 11, 2025

Kim has long sought recognition as a nuclear power. Xi may have just given it to him

CNN•Sep 10, 2025

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