Question

Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction

(8% - 11%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 8%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Sep 9, 2022

Closed:

Sep 19, 2022

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 11, 2022

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

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Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

42%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

70%