196 forecasters

Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 26, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2022

2022 Leaderboard

'It is time to call Putin's WW3 bluff': Russia's drone incursions are the signal NATO must now join the fight in Ukraine or risk European invasion, experts warn

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

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Independent•Sep 16, 2025

Russia shows off conventional and nuclear military might in drills — and raises tensions with NATO

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2025

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