Related Questions on Metaculus:
- Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
- Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?
On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, on high alert. On February 28, an anonymous US official told Reuters, "I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg told the AP, "We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces."
On March 3, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said "The thought of nuclear is constantly spinning in the heads of Western politicians but not in the heads of Russians". TIME magazine reported on the same day that the US and Russia have opened a direct communications hotline to prevent an accidental military conflict.
On September 21, 2022, Putin delivered a speech in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what media sources have characterized as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying
When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.
Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?
This question will resolve as Yes if the United States detonates any nuclear weapon in Russian territory after September 23, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. For the purposes of this question, Russian territory will be defined as internationally recognized prior to 2014 (that is, excluding Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, the Luhansk Republic, and other military occupations). This includes the 12 nautical mile territorial sea off the coast of Russia. The detonation must be clearly attributed to the United States according to credible sources. A deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation detonation would result in the question resolving as Yes. To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.
For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear weapon" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called "dirty bombs").