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Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?

Climate change driven largely by increased atmospheric levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, is generating an upward trend to the global average surface temperature, as exhibited in this summary plot

Last year (2015) the average temperature set new record highs by a large margin, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis.

Will 2016 again set a new record? Or will it fall below the level of 2015?

This will resolve in the positive if the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2016 is published above that of 2015.

Categories: Environment – Climate

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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.