πŸ“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

πŸ”­ The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global β€” Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm β€” and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

15
20
33 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CityMe
Sevastopol
annulled
Luhansk city
annulled
Dzhankoi
annulled
Donetsk city
annulled
Mariupol
annulled
Simferopol
annulled
Armiansk
annulled
Krasnoperekopsk (Yany Kapu)
annulled
Sievierodonetsk
annulled
Melitopol
annulled
Kherson
annulled
Resolved Dec 31, 2023
Authors:
EvanHarper
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Red Lines in Ukraine
Geopolitics
Technology
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Donetsk
Luhansk
Melitopol
Kherson
Russo-Ukrainian War
Sievierodonetsk
Simferopol
Armyansk
Mariupol

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