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Will the Brain Preservation Foundation's Large Mammal preservation prize be won by Feb 9th, 2017?
The Brain Preservation Foundation has created a two-part prize for a team that can demonstrate high fidelity preservation of neural tissue.
The first part of this prize, the Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize (for a rabbit brain) was won today.
The winning team (21st Century Medicine) had to demonstrate complete ultrastructural preservation of 99+% of the animals connectome, as validated by electron microscopy.
Will the Brain Preservation Foundation announce a winner of the currently outstanding Large Mammal Brain Preservation prize (a pig or larger animal) within the next 12 months?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.