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24 comments
90 forecasters

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

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Authors:
casens
Opened:Oct 12, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2123
Scheduled resolution:Apr 2, 2124
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What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2023
1.2×10¹⁸
2025
3×10¹⁸
2032
8.4×10¹⁹
2 others
69 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

2023
168.2B
2025
553B
2032
1.68T
2 others
73 forecasters

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
N/A
Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32
N/A
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
N/A
2 others
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