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Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?
Although we're still several months away from official candidate announcements, let's put our politics brains in and think about who might be yelling at Donald Trump on a stage in 2019.
So far, the only major candidate to have declared candidacy for the Democratic party nomination is John Delaney, a Congressman from Maryland. That's no surprise, since in the run-up to the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy on April 12, 2015. Donald Trump formally began his campaign two months later, on June 16. Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy on the 29th of April.
Still, it's a fair bet that many of the big names will be in the running early on, including Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, and perhaps even wild cards such as Oprah Winfrey, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, and Joe Biden. But few potential nominees are generating as many headlines right now as Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, who for the purposes of this question, are the frontrunners for the nomination.
Will one of Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election?
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.