modeling accurate futures aggregating calibrated predictions generating quantitative forecasts delivering accurate wisdom exploring critical forecasts mapping the future predicting contingent contingencies computing probable wisdom aggregating probable insights exploring probable predictions composing precise estimations modeling critical insights forecasting predictive predictions calculating precise predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?

Although we're still several months away from official candidate announcements, let's put our politics brains in and think about who might be yelling at Donald Trump on a stage in 2019.

So far, the only major candidate to have declared candidacy for the Democratic party nomination is John Delaney, a Congressman from Maryland. That's no surprise, since in the run-up to the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy on April 12, 2015. Donald Trump formally began his campaign two months later, on June 16. Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy on the 29th of April.

Still, it's a fair bet that many of the big names will be in the running early on, including Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, and perhaps even wild cards such as Oprah Winfrey, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, and Joe Biden. But few potential nominees are generating as many headlines right now as Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, who for the purposes of this question, are the frontrunners for the nomination.

Will one of Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election?


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.