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Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?

Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to technological singularity, which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found here.

It is asked:

Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?

Note that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.

  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
  • To help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in this report, but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.


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