Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?
update to: this question
Dominos continue to fall in Mueller's investigation of involvement of Russia in the 2016 presidential election.
As of question writing, Papadopoulos was charged, pled guilty, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. Paul Manafort has been charged but pled innocent. Michael Flynn has pled guilty to a single charge of lying to the FBI, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. On July 16, a Russian gun rights advocate with ties to the NRA, Maria Butina, was charged with crimes of conspiracy. A witness claimed that Butina met with Trump Jr. in mid-2016.
There is widespread sentiment that these relatively "light" charges were filed primarily to acquire cooperation, as well as leave charges on the table that could be brought at a state level in the event of a presidential pardon.
What happens next?
Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. have been at the center of campaign operations from the start, privy to many of the meetings and events that are under investigation. Kushner skated through to Tax Day and Trump Jr. made it past Father's Day without a scratch, but Paul Manafort, of course, was not quite so lucky. And things are getting a little weird in Trumpland. So, we ask:
Will Donald Trump, Jr. be charged with a crime by December 25, 2018?
As for other questions in this series, resolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Donald Trump, Jr. has been formally charged prior to the date in question.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.