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Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit?
Two currently open questions concern the future relationship of the UK and the EU:
- Brexit Negotiations completed by March 2019 asks whether a Brexit deal will be signed and ratified by March 2019.
- Will the UK actually leave the EU asks if Brexit will happen at all.
If no further agreement is reached, the UK will leave the EU by default on 29 March 2019, two years after triggering Article 50. (Importantly, even an extension of this deadline would require an explicit agreement.) This possibility of a "no-deal" Brexit is being discussed with increasing concern, as it would have a radical impact on the economy and many aspects of public life (from free movement to food and medicine supply).
This question asks: Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?
This question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on schedule (March 29 2019 at 23:00 UK time). It resolves negatively if any deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents this (including an agreement to extend the deadline, or to abandon Brexit entirely). Otherwise, it resolves as ambiguous.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.