Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c

Question

This is the sixth question in a series estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a recent paper, on the Fermi paradox.

The first question in the series, with more explanation, is here

The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.

In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, $f_c$.

It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.

Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.

Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to $10^{-5}$, open at the bottom, to be safe.

The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.