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Drake's Equation Question Set: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?
The first question in the series, with more explanation, is here
The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .
It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.
Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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