Question
Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?
Total Forecasters163
Community Prediction
18k years
(449 years - 6.76M years)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <10 | 7.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 448.7 | — |
| median | 18.02k | — |
| upper 75% | 6.759M | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10B | 13.4% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Sep 5, 2018
Closes:Sep 7, 2118
Scheduled resolution:Sep 7, 2118
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 6, 2018
Authors:
Opened:Sep 5, 2018
Closes:Sep 7, 2118
Scheduled resolution:Sep 7, 2118
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 6, 2018