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Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?
This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
Google Trends tracks how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest value for the given region and period of interest. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term during the period of interest. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term. This question will resolve as ‘yes’ if Google Trends shows a 50-point or greater increase of interest in the search term from one day to the next during the period of interest. To access the relevant data, from Google Trends: - Enter the search term of interest (as a ‘Search term’ not a ‘Topic’); - Make sure 'Worldwide' is selected for the geographic area; - Use the drop-down field to enter a ‘Custom time range’ corresponding to the period of interest; - Click the down arrow in the top right of the 'Interest over time' chart to download the data to a CSV file. This question will be resolved at the end of the period of interest.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.