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Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?
This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
Google Trends tracks how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest value for the given region and period of interest. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term during the period of interest. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term. This question will resolve as ‘yes’ if Google Trends shows a 50-point or greater increase of interest in the search term from one day to the next during the period of interest. To access the relevant data, from Google Trends: - Enter the search term of interest (as a ‘Search term’ not a ‘Topic’); - Make sure 'Worldwide' is selected for the geographic area; - Use the drop-down field to enter a ‘Custom time range’ corresponding to the period of interest; - Click the down arrow in the top right of the 'Interest over time' chart to download the data to a CSV file. This question will be resolved at the end of the period of interest.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.