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Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?
For now, let's see if his legal team can convince him to put it off through the end of the year. And additionally, let's stipulate that the interview (or whatever it ends up being called) need not be under oath, and it is not necessary for Trump to verbally answer questions on any one topic, e.g. obstruction. And as with the last version of this prediction, "the interview need not be broadcast or publicly accessible, but it should be in-person (not for example written responses to questions) and interrogatory (i.e. not a single statement made verbally under oath, nor just answers with no followups to questions that are known to Trump+team in advance.)
Resolution will be negative if Trump testifies before a grand jury before being interviewed by one Mueller's team."
Resolves positive if Trump sits with Mueller for questioning before 12/31/2018.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.