modeling accurate futures delivering quantitative insights predicting calibrated forecasts formulating precise forecasts generating definitive insights mapping the future forecasting quantitative estimations formulating critical wisdom generating calibrated forecasts exploring precise contingencies calculating definitive contingencies assembling predictive wisdom exploring definitive wisdom delivering accurate predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?

In light of continued rumblings that Trump could, in fact, take a face-to-face meeting with Robert Mueller, let's reissue the previous version of this question with a new deadline.

For now, let's see if his legal team can convince him to put it off through the end of the year. And additionally, let's stipulate that the interview (or whatever it ends up being called) need not be under oath, and it is not necessary for Trump to verbally answer questions on any one topic, e.g. obstruction. And as with the last version of this prediction, "the interview need not be broadcast or publicly accessible, but it should be in-person (not for example written responses to questions) and interrogatory (i.e. not a single statement made verbally under oath, nor just answers with no followups to questions that are known to Trump+team in advance.)

Resolution will be negative if Trump testifies before a grand jury before being interviewed by one Mueller's team."

Resolves positive if Trump sits with Mueller for questioning before 12/31/2018.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.