30 comments
129 forecasters
Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 16, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 17, 2022
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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
188
Will the United States commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles before December 1, 2025?
38
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2% chance
196