calculating contingent wisdom crowdsourcing intelligent estimations composing intelligent forecasts predicting definitive estimations exploring probable estimations mapping the future aggregating accurate futures delivering predictive forecasts forecasting precise contingencies generating definitive contingencies crowdsourcing definitive predictions aggregating predictive forecasts computing definitive understanding formulating predictive contingencies


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q (or as part of the team that is Q)?

Are you having a good day? Yeah, then you might want to stop reading right now. Consider yourself warned, normie. You might be wondering, who or what is Q or QAnon? The answer varies significantly depending upon who you ask Ask a supporter of QAnon and they will tell you that Q is a high ranking military official who is leaking clues about what is really going on in the world. By following these breadcrumbs, which normies miss because they only follow the MSM (mainstream media), you can discover a set of alarming facts about the world. Donald Trump is working with George Mueller in order to take down Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and other liberals who are part of an international child sex trafficking ring. The Deep State is going after Donald Trump, trying to take down his presidency, but he won’t let this coup occur. Their rallying cry is “The storm is coming” a reference to Trump's cryptic claim. All that you need to do is ‘Trust the Plan’ because Donald Trump is going to fight this evil group of liberal elites. #WWG1WGA “Where We Go One, We Go All”.

Ask someone who isn’t a member of QAnon and they will tell you that this is the newest iteration in the long list of American conspiracy theories. Think the Da Vinci Code meets your paranoid uncle that lives in his prepper shelter. This movement began on internet discussion boards and spread like wildfire to popular sites like Youtube and Reddit. Ultimately it made its way into the real world at the Trump Rally on July 31, 2018 in Tampa, FL. You can readily see that QAnon supporters were out in full force (you can tell by their fly gear).

Now that you know something about QAnon, let’s move on to the question. This NBC news article posits that Tracy Diaz, Christina Urso, and Coleman Rogers are responsible for the spreading of QAnon.

In November 2017, a small-time YouTube video creator (Tracy Diaz) and two moderators of the 4chan website (Christina Urso and Coleman Rogers), one of the most extreme message boards on the internet, banded together and plucked out of obscurity an anonymous and cryptic post from the many conspiracy theories that populated the website's message board. From: How three conspiracy theorists took 'Q' and sparked Qanon (names added)

Who is Coleman Rogers and why would anyone think that he is part of QAnon?

A review of Rogers’ Facebook page shows he had been active in internet politics and a staunch supporter of Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign, self-identifying as part of the “meme war” — the creation and dissemination of images and internet-style commentary that internet agitators on the chans and Reddit credit with Trump’s win. Rogers often posted memes about “liberal tears” as well as the ludicrous claims that Democrats murdered children and worshipped Satan — details similar to those that would eventually form the Qanon theory. (ibid)

So he has a history of spreading absurd lies on the interwebs. What else?

Within a month (of being kicked off Reddit), Rogers, 31, and his wife, Christina Urso, 29, had launched the Patriots’ Soapbox, a round-the-clock livestreamed YouTube channel for Qanon study and discussion. The channel is, in effect, a broadcast of a Discord chatroom with constant audio commentary from a rotating cast of volunteers and moderators with sporadic appearances by Rogers and Urso. In April, Urso registered Patriots’ Soapbox LLC in Virginia. Rogers and Urso use their channel to call for donations that are accepted through PayPal, cryptocurrencies or mail.”( parenthetical added ibid)

Perhaps they are merely profiting off of this cultural phenomenon. However, some believe that Rogers really is Q.

Some YouTube channels, like one named Unirock, are mostly dedicated to poring over Patriots’ Soapbox livestreams and dissecting purported slip-ups. One archived livestream appears to show Rogers logging into the 8chan account of “Q.”The Patriots’ Soapbox feed quickly cuts out after the login attempt. “Sorry, leg cramp,” Rogers says, before the feed reappears seconds later. (ibid)

Resolution criteria: Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q by September 16th?

Maybe we’ll get lucky and Anonymous will do the dirty work for us and unmask the real Q. Otherwise this could be difficult to resolve. If Rogers has been perpetuating the myth of Q in order to make money then he wouldn't be terribly likely to be forthright about it. Given that difficulty, this question will use consensus forming to create its own answer on whether Rogers is indeed Q (individually, or as a member of a team). Note that the close date will follow the September 16th revelation deadline by two weeks so that we have sufficient time for the community to build a consensus and thus adjudicate.

  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 90%, then the question resolves positive.

  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 10%, then the question resolves negative.

  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 10% and ≤ 90%, then the question author (Ben, the Arbiter of Truth) shall decide resolution.

It is important to note that by asking the question concerning the identity of Q, we are missing the point.

The funniest thing about those who try to discredit Q.. They focus on whether Q is real or not, instead of the information being provided. NO ONE cares who Q is. WE care about the TRUTH. Factual evidence. And WE have lots of it. #qanon #WWG1WGA


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.