Question

Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?

Resolved:No

16 comments16

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction

40%

(30% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

19.0

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Sep 26, 2018

Closes:

Nov 11, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Faith Kipyegon didn’t run four minutes for the mile – but this is how she can succeed next time

Independent•Jun 28, 2025

Faith Kipyegon misses four-minute mile barrier by six seconds – video

Guardian•Jun 27, 2025

Faith Kipyegon certain a woman will break four-minute mile barrier within a decade

Guardian•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?

25 Sep 2027

What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?

7146

When will the women's world record for a competitive marathon reach below 2 hours?

>Jan 2061

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Sep 26, 2018

Closes:

Nov 11, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Faith Kipyegon didn’t run four minutes for the mile – but this is how she can succeed next time

Independent•Jun 28, 2025

Faith Kipyegon misses four-minute mile barrier by six seconds – video

Guardian•Jun 27, 2025

Faith Kipyegon certain a woman will break four-minute mile barrier within a decade

Guardian•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?

25 Sep 2027

What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?

7146

When will the women's world record for a competitive marathon reach below 2 hours?

>Jan 2061