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Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?
By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its longest running bull market.
However, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be one in a series asking whether a recession will begin by the midpoint of each year, beginning July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2022. A series of binary questions is used so that Metaculus users can make separate predictions for each period rather than a single prediction over a time range.
This question resolves positively if the U.S. enters a recession before July 1, 2021.
Official recession determinations are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the NBER recession determinations can be delayed by more than a year after the start of a recession; see FAQ.
Accordingly, the question will be resolved positively or negatively if there is clear agreement that a recession did or did not begin during the relevant time period as reported in the economic/financial press (i.e., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times, Forbes, the Economist, etc.). In the absence of clear agreement, resolution will be based on an official determination by the NBER. In the absence of clear agreement and, if the NBER no longer makes recession determinations, the question will resolve as ambiguous. For purposes of this question, a depression will count as a recession.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.