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Will The People Choose Raphael Warnock?

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Question

Raphael Warnock is a Baptist Minister and United States Senator from Georgia. He was first elected in a special election in 2020 to fill the remaining two years of a retiring Senator's term. Because his election was close, was crucial to deciding overall partisan control in the Senate, and required a second-round runoff election to determine an overall winner, it was watched unusually carefully on a national level. Warnock was praised for his skillful and calculating campaigning; at one point, he borrowed a friend's puppy for a campaign ad about how lovable he was, because his own dog was apparently considered too big and scary for white voters.

Herschel Walker is a football star from Georgia who has lived for many years in Texas. Although previously unknown politically, he secured the 2022 Republican Senate nomination easily once endorsed by Donald Trump. But professional and "establishment" politicos fretted. As the campaign proceeded and Walker's personal and professional limitations became clear, he came to be seen increasingly as an exemplar of a class of ill-advisable Senate candidates parachuted by Trump into otherwise favorable races. "Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome", Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell noted portentously.

Though changing demographically, Georgia is still a Republican state, rated R+3 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index. And the President's party usually loses Senate seats in midterm elections rather than gaining them, although this pattern is not so well-established as in the House. But Warnock is considered a first-rate talent and Walker not necessarily so. The broader 2022 outcome was much more favorable to Democrats than base rates might have predicted, and the most uniquely energizing issue for Democrats this cycle – abortion – may be one on which Walker is especially vulnerable.

The 2022 regular Senate election in Georgia, whose victor will win a six-year Senate term this time, has again come down to a run-off, to be held on Tuesday December 6. Democrats have already eliminated the possibility of Republican Senate control, but even one additional seat could still make a big difference, and the next election is anyway only two years away. Commentary has tended to favor Warnock, but everyone admits either side could easily win.

Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the 2022 Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?

This question resolves Yes if and when the Associated Press call the 2022 Georgia Senate runoff election for Warnock, and No if and when they call it for Walker. It may be unresolved and reversed according to final official results in the unlikely event of a miscall.

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