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39
9
forecasters
9
39 comments
9 forecasters
Business of AI
3 more...
When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?
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25 Jun 2023
result
24 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
Resolved
24 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
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218 forecasters
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
1%
chance
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Leading Lab No Safety
2026
result:
Yes
2030
28%
2036
20%
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OpenAI Triggers 'Assist Clause'
2031
8%
2026
result:
No
1 comment
43 forecasters
GPT-6 release date?
Current estimate
14 Nov 2026
5 comments
37 forecasters
AI alignment experts consider alignment techniques enough?
Current estimate
19.8%
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
1 comment
54 forecasters
Dates that OpenAI reports an AI reached these Self-improvement risk levels?
0 comments
25 forecasters
Dates Large AI Models Released
8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026