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Who will win the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?
On August 2nd, 2018, the shortlist for the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize was released. The winner will be announced at an award ceremony on October 1st and receive £25,000.
The shortlisted works are all over the scientific spectrum from the the interaction of humanity and machines to the strange behaviours present in the animal kingdom. Of the six nominees, Mark Miodownik is the only one to have been previously nominated. He won the 2014 prize for his book Stuff Matters.
The books are as follows:
Inventing Ourselves: The Secret Life of the Teenage Brain by Sarah-Jayne Blakemore
The Unexpected Truth About Animals by Lucy Cooke
The Beautiful Cure: Harnessing Your Body’s Natural Defences by Daniel M Davis
Hello World: How to be Human in the Age of the Machine by Hannah Fry
Liquid: The Delightful and Dangerous Substances That Flow Through Our Lives by Mark Miodownik
Exactly: How Precision Engineers Created the Modern World by Simon Winchester
Since Metaculus, at present, is not set up for non-binary categorical questions, we will instead somewhat artificially recast this as as binary question:
Will a woman win the 2018 Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?
Of the six nominees, three are women (Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, Lucy Cooke, and Hannah Fry) and three are men (Daniel M Davis, Mark Miodownik, and Simon Winchester). The resolution will be determined by a press release by the Royal Society or a post on its website declaring the winner.
Users are encouraged to discuss individual books and their win probabilities in the comments.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.