Question
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction
1054 events
(805 events - 1390 events)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <600 | 8.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 804.6 | — |
| median | 1054 | — |
| upper 75% | 1390 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10k | 0.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 15, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 3, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Dec 15, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 3, 2023