Question
What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?
Total Forecasters96
Community Prediction
2.27 people
(0.846 people - 5.07 people)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.8462 | — |
| median | 2.273 | — |
| upper 75% | 5.069 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >100 | 0.7% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 15, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 30, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2023
Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?
0.1%
When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?
Apr 2041
By what year will there be a permanently inhabited lunar base with at least five crew members, operational for six consecutive months?
Apr 2038
Authors:
Opened:Dec 15, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 30, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2023
Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?
0.1%
When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?
Apr 2041
By what year will there be a permanently inhabited lunar base with at least five crew members, operational for six consecutive months?
Apr 2038