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Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018?

Initially, the decision on the location for Amazon's massive HQ2 was supposed to have been handed down in early 2018. However, with a closed-door, national, billion-dollar bidding war in full swing, the assuredly-outrageous particulars of which remain a mystery even to the people making the bids, the momentum continues.

Will Bezos finally put 19 cities (or just 1, depending on your point of view) out of their misery, by announcing where Amazon's next headquarters will be built on or before October 1, 2018? Resolves positive only if officially confirmed by a named representative of Amazon. Will resolve 1 (but not retroactively close) one day prior to the announcement if resolution is positive.

Categories: Business

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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.