mapping contingent understanding exploring calibrated predictions generating definitive contingencies mapping critical wisdom generating probable forecasts mapping the future formulating probable wisdom modeling quantitative forecasts modeling quantitative insights calculating critical contingencies exploring definitive contingencies forecasting predictive insights composing precise futures formulating critical estimations


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?

Canada is heading into a federal election in the fall of 2019. Recently, there has been a fracture in the Conservative Party of Canada: the libertarian-leaning MP from Quebec, Maxime Bernier, left the party over complaints that it is "morally and intellectually corrupt" and beholden to special interest groups whom they serve at the public's expense. Bernier's acrimonious departure came after the Conservative Party caucus — mostly notably leader Andrew Scheer, who beat Bernier by two percentage points during a 2017 leadership racedistanced themselves from him in the wake of blowback to his comments addressing what he called the ruling Liberal party's policies of "extreme diversity".

Bernier has declared his intentions to form his own federal political party and field candidates in all 338 of Canada's federal ridings. He enjoys considerable grassroots support. A poll of a thousand Canadians shortly after he announced his intention to form a party found 13% of Canadians intended to cast their vote for its candidates. While this is an impressive start, it's clear that Bernier has an uphill battle ahead of him in order to ascend to the Prime Ministership, or even to the Leader of the Official Opposition, a position currently occupied by his formal rival Scheer.

One big boost to Bernier's candidacy would be an endorsement from Canadian intellectual Jordan Peterson, who is arguably the most well-known and popular intellectual in the Western world today. His work — which is often articulated in bombastic popular lectures — covers topics such as free speech, identity, anti-totalitarianism, personality, performance, and religion, among many others. Peterson's reach is considerable: his lectures have been viewed nearly 70 million times on YouTube, and his new book, 12 Rules for Life, has sold over half a million copies.

Peterson and Bernier have crossed paths before. Bernier cited a meeting with Jordan Peterson has having changed his mind on endorsing Bill C-16, which amends the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Criminal Code to include the terms "gender identity" and "gender expression". He met Peterson again and was photographed with him this past April at an event in Montreal, where he says the two of them spoke on the topic of freedom of speech.

Peterson considers himself to be a "classical liberal", while Maxime resists political labelling but has suggested he himself might reasonably be called a freedom-loving fiscal conservative, or a "reasonable libertarian". Both share a dislike for the policies and perspectives of the current Prime Minster, Justin Trudeau, and his Liberal Party.

While there is perhaps not much political space between Bernier and Peterson, its not clear that Peterson is in the business of offering political endorsements. He seems not to have made any publicly during the 2015 Canadian federal election. He did say, when asked, that he would be open to endorsing candidate Tanya Granic Allen during the Ontario Progressive Conservative party's leadership race earlier this year, but no such endorsement ever came. That said, he clearly has an interest in politics, and even considered running in the Ontario Progressive Conservative party's leadership race after the previous leader Patrick Brown resigned amidst allegations of sexual misconduct.

Peterson's ideas have already had a large impact on Canadian politics at the federal and provincial level. It no doubt informed the pushback among federal Conservatives on Bill C-16, and has fueled the concerns of both federal and provincial conservatives regarding the challenges to freedom of speech on the country's university campuses.

Jordan Peterson will be considered to have "endorsed" Maxime Bernier if he declares in a public statement or utterance that he endorses him to be Canada's next Prime Minister. Nothing short of an unequivocal endorsement — such as Peterson mentioning Bernier or his policies favourably in the media — will suffice.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.