This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of Scott Alexander in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found here.
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.