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81
344
forecasters
28
81 comments
344 forecasters
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
3 more...
In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?
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No
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SpaceX Starship Carries Human to Orbit
Current estimate
21 Sep 2028
1 comment
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SpaceX Starship Integrated Launches 2026?
Current estimate
7.67 Launches
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Starship orbital refueling in 2026?
36%
chance
14 comments
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Date of a customer payload on Starship
Current estimate
>01 Jan 2027
10 comments
37 forecasters
SpaceX lands stuff on Mars by 2035?
An uncrewed craft
48%
At least one person
4%
At least one person—and return them to Earth
1.6%
Elon Musk
0.1%
125 comments
2.8k forecasters
SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
10%
chance
14 comments
114 forecasters
Mars Sample Mission vs Starship
15%
chance
450 comments
4.4k forecasters
SpaceX Lands People on Mars by 2030
0.1%
chance