Question
In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters85
Community Prediction
90%
(86% - 91%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
3.2
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Jan 14, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 12, 2023
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?
90%
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97%
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Jan 14, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 12, 2023
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?
90%
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97%