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23
211
forecasters
13
23 comments
211 forecasters
AI Safety
4 more...
In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?
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Yes
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3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
54 comments
177 forecasters
AI-Generated Film Ranked #1 In Streaming
Current estimate
26 Oct 2029
3 comments
72 forecasters
AI Blackmail for Material Gain by EOY 2028
71%
chance
13 comments
140 forecasters
AI Unauthorized Access Before 2033?
99%
chance
6 comments
80 forecasters
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
Current estimate
26 Feb 2028
3 comments
9 forecasters
Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?
49.9%
chance
26 comments
148 forecasters
AI incident causes $1bn damage before 2032
76%
chance
2 comments
81 forecasters
Will cyberattack targeting AI cause power blackout in the US before 2028?
11%
chance