21 comments
107 forecasters
Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
51%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 51% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 26, 2022
Closes:Mar 31, 2023
Resolved:Mar 21, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 28, 2022
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
16 forecasters
When will Google first release Gemini 3.0?
27 Oct 2025
(15 Oct 2025 03:19 - 12 Nov 2025)
27 Oct 2025
(15 Oct 2025 03:19 - 12 Nov 2025)
27 forecasters
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.1% chance
129