Question
When will GPT-4 be announced?
Resolved:14 Mar 2023 11:00Total Forecasters129
Community Prediction
18 Mar 2023 17:39
(13 Mar 2023 17:35 - 29 Mar 2023)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 13 Mar 2023 17:35 | — |
| median | 18 Mar 2023 17:39 | — |
| upper 75% | 29 Mar 2023 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2024 | 0.8% | — |
What was the final result?14 Mar 2023 11:00
Community Peer Score
4.3
Community Baseline Score
10.4
Authors:
Opened:Dec 27, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 29, 2022
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
17 May 2028
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
06 Jul 2027
Authors:
Opened:Dec 27, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 29, 2022
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
17 May 2028
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
06 Jul 2027