Question
If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?
Resolved:AmbiguousTotal Forecasters70
Community Prediction
1765
(1678 - 1849)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <175 | 0.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1678 | — |
| median | 1765 | — |
| upper 75% | 1849 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10k | 0.2% | — |
What was the final result?Ambiguous
Authors:
Opened:Dec 29, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2022
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.04M
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
28%
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
Authors:
Opened:Dec 29, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2022
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.04M
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
28%
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029