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25 comments
83 forecasters

Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?

Latest estimate
86.2
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:Sep 19, 2018
Closed:Jun 1, 2020
Scheduled resolution:Jan 29, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 19, 2018
Politics
2016-2020 Leaderboard
Newsweek logo
Map Shows Worldwide Fight Over Democracy
Newsweek•Sep 11, 2025
Guardian logo
Global press freedom suffers sharpest fall in 50 years, report finds
Guardian•Sep 11, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?

7.08
(6.26 - 7.69)
7.08
(6.26 - 7.69)
55 forecasters

What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?

52.5%
(42.4 - 62.2)
52.5%
(42.4 - 62.2)
29 forecasters

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

78.2 points
(69.5 - 85.5)
78.2 points
(69.5 - 85.5)
20 forecasters
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