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What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?

The Democracy Index is

an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.

It ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).

The index for 2019 can be viewed here. As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.

What will that number be in the 2040 report?

This question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).

* "Metaculus" here means "Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section".


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