Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year?
in a May 15 homily, Pope Francis hinted that he may not remain the Holy See that much longer.
The Catholic News Agency reported:
the pope noted that St. Paul, who was “compelled by the Holy Spirit” to leave Ephesus and journey to Jerusalem, “shows us the pathway for every bishop when it’s time to take his leave and step down... When I read this, I think about myself,” Pope Francis said, “because I am a bishop and I must take my leave and step down... All pastors must take our leave. There comes a moment where the Lord tells us: go somewhere else, go there, go this way, come to me. And one of the steps a pastor must do is to prepare himself to take good leave, not to leave halfway."
Pope Francis had previously alluded to the idea that he might not remain Pope into 2019. As this 2017 article from Crux noted in the context of Catholic Church’s World Youth Day (which will be held in Panama in 2019), Pope Francis told a crowd at St. Mary Major basilica: “I don’t know if it will be me, but the pope will be in Panama!”
Meanwhile, the Pope is facing internal calls for resignation in light of the church's sex abuse scandals.
What's your take? Question resolves positive if Pope Francis publically announces (but does not necessarily complete) his resignation before the year is out.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.