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13
100
forecasters
9
13 comments
100 forecasters
Social Sciences
2 more...
When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?
Predict
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Current estimate
Nov 2031
Nov 2031
(29 Jan 2029 - Dec 2036)
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Forecast Timeline
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Comments (13)
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6 comments
80 forecasters
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
Current estimate
26 Feb 2028
26 comments
1.5k forecasters
AI given rights in US before 2035
10%
chance
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
8 comments
7 forecasters
Neuralink / BCI Mass Adoption Timeline
Current estimate
Jun 2040
3 comments
25 forecasters
Company with AI CEO?
$1 trillion
Dec 2063
$1 billion
May 2060
14 comments
62 forecasters
AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%
3 comments
73 forecasters
AI Blackmail for Material Gain by EOY 2028
70%
chance
3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%