Question

Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?

Resolved:Yes

32 comments32

Total Forecasters107

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

23.7

Community Peer Score

18.1

Authors:

GustavoLacerda

Opened:

Jan 18, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2023

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

American Students Are Relying On ChatGPT - At Their Own Risk

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

A Behavioristic View of AI

Psychology Today•Jun 24, 2025

LinkedIn CEO says AI writing assistant is not as popular as expected

TechCrunch•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

04 Apr 2030

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

31%

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

33%

Authors:

GustavoLacerda

Opened:

Jan 18, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2023

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

American Students Are Relying On ChatGPT - At Their Own Risk

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

A Behavioristic View of AI

Psychology Today•Jun 24, 2025

LinkedIn CEO says AI writing assistant is not as popular as expected

TechCrunch•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

04 Apr 2030

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

31%

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

33%