Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will any country stop using cash currency?
While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes.
Electronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today more than half of US citizens use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s Swish for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores.
But there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.
The currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with their ongoing trial to reduce coins, and according to researchers there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.
When will the world see the first cashless society?
Resolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.