Question

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction28% (24% - 43%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.49M

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3×10²⁵

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Alibaba’s New Model Adds Fuel to China’s AI Race

Time•Mar 7, 2025

Google DeepMind’s Gemma 3 Brings Multimodal AI, 128K Context Window, and More

•Mar 13, 2025

Google unveils open source Gemma 3 model with 128k context window

•Mar 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.49M

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3×10²⁵

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹