Question
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
Total Forecasters35
Community Prediction
28%
(20% - 33%)
Make a Prediction
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jan 25, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 27, 2023
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.44M
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
5.9×10²⁶
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.1×10²⁵
Authors:
Opened:Jan 25, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 27, 2023
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.44M
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
5.9×10²⁶
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.1×10²⁵