Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!


This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

Multiple Tiers of ChatGPT Before 2024

🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖

OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their GPT (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.

ChatGPT launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They claim to have reached more than 1 million users within the first 5 days. However, running it is costly and an "experimental" paid version was announced recently. This version promises to be

“always available,” offer “fast responses” with no throttling, and give users “at least” twice the daily number of answers compared to the free version of the chatbot.

But a sufficiently patient user of the free version could still enjoy everything ChatGPT has to offer, so we ask whether this will change:

Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?

This question resolves as Yes if there are at least two versions of ChatGPT publicly available simultaneously at any time before January 1st, 2024 and these versions are claimed to have different capabilities—not including increased speed, reduced down-time, or relaxed limits on the number of requests. Paid versions will be considered to be "publicly available". The capabilities difference must be acknowledged by OpenAI to qualify, perceived differences in capabilities are not sufficient.

This question resolves as Ambiguous if ChatGPT ceases to be accessible to the public and as No otherwise.

Hypothetical scenario: OpenAI keeps the free version and launches a paid version.

  • They announce that the paid version gives better answers because they allocate more compute to it, not because of any architectural changes/additional training. In this hypothetical scenario this question would resolve as Yes.
  • If, however, the only benefit is improved accessibility or speed, this question would resolve as No.
  • If no announcement is made about a difference in capabilities between the two versions this would resolve as No.

ChatGPT is still considered to be "publicly available" even if

  • it is rebranded under a different name/with a slightly different interface, but essentially the same functionality (e.g. an iPhone app, only in Bing search, …),
  • it ceases to be available for free, but paid versions are offered.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.