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Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?

A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will ever be possible. Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: "Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so."

The Brookings Institute took up a similar question:

Logic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers.

And an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called Global Zero seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have a plan.

On the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. This Quora answer, for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: "Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever."

So are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the International Atomic Energy Agency) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the "deployed": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)


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