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Will the U.S. Senate vote on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh before Monday, October the 8th?
Predict here on whether the Senate vote will take place by the start of Monday. Resolves positive if so, negative if no vote takes place for whatever reason.
Once the FBI completes its investigation, the White House sends the report to the Senate Judiciary Committee, and senators vote on the motion to end debate, there can be an up or down vote. If Mitch McConnell orders the Senate to work over the weekend, this vote could happen as early as Saturday afternoon.
This question resolves positive if the Senate votes on the confirmation of Kavanaugh prior to Monday the 8th, EDT.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.